75% del lavoro che svolgiamo oggi sparirà in 10-20 anni per esempio.
Non sarà necessario comprare un'automobile in 10-15 anni. Ecc.
L'articolo e' in inglese. Usate google translator per la traduzione.
THE
FUTURE IS ONLY FIVE YEARS FROM TODAY.
While time predictions may be premature and
success of all technologies presented may not succeed, this stuff is thought
provoking!
________________________________________
The FUTURE is approaching faster than one can handle....!
In 1998, Kodak had 170,000 employees and
sold 85% of all photo paper worldwide.
Within just a few years, their business
model disappeared and they went
bankrupt.
What happened to Kodak will happen in a lot
of industries in the next 10 years and,
most people won't see it coming.
Did you think in 1998 that 3 years later
you would never take pictures on film again?
Yet digital cameras were invented in 1975. The first ones only had 10,000 pixels, but
followed Moore's law. So as with all
exponential technologies, it was a disappointment for a time, before it became
way superior and became main stream in only a few short years. It will now happen again with Artificial
Intelligence, health, autonomous and electric cars, education, 3Dprinting,
agriculture and jobs. Welcome to the
4th Industrial Revolution. Welcome to
the Exponential Age .
Software will disrupt most traditional
industries in the next 5-10 years.
Uber is just a software tool, they don't
own any cars, and are now the biggest
taxi company in the world.
Airbnb is now the biggest hotel company in
the world, although they don't own any
properties.
Artificial Intelligence: Computers become exponentially better in
understanding the world . This year, a
computer beat the best Go-player in the world, 10 years earlier than expected.
In the US, young lawyers already don't get jobs. Because of IBM's Watson, you can get legal
advice (so far for more or less basic
stuff) within seconds, with 90% accuracy
compared with 70% accuracy when done
by humans.
So if you study law, stop immediately. There will be 90% less lawyers in the future,
only specialists will remain.
Watson already helps nurses diagnosing
cancer, its 4 times more accurate than
human nurses.
Facebook now has a pattern recognition
software that can recognize faces better
than humans. In 2030, computers will
become more intelligent than humans. (NEVER!/Albert)
Autonomous
cars : In 2018 the first self-driving cars will appear for the public. Around 2020, the
complete industry will start to be disrupted. You don't want to own a car anymore. You will call a car with your phone, it will
show up at your location and drive you to your destination. You will not need
to park it, you only pay for the driven distance and can be productive while
driving.
Our kids will never get a driver's license and will never own a car.
It will change the cities, because we will
need 90-95% less cars for that. We can
transform former parking spaces into parks.
1.2 million people die each year in car accidents worldwide. We now have one accident every 60,000 miles (100,000 km), with autonomous driving
that will drop to 1 accident in 6million
miles (10 million km). That will save a
million lives each year.
Most car companies will probably become
bankrupt. Traditional car companies try
the evolutionary approach and just build a better car, while tech companies
(Tesla, Apple, Google) will do the
revolutionary approach and build a computer on
wheels.
Many engineers from Volkswagen and Audi are
completely terrified of Tesla.
Insurance companies will have massive
trouble because without accidents, the insurance will become 100x cheaper. Their car insurance business model will
disappear.
Real estate will change. Because, if you can work while you commute,
people will move further away to live in a more beautiful neighborhood.
Electric cars will become mainstream about
2020. Cities will be less noisy because
all new cars will run on electricity.
Electricity will become incredibly cheap
and clean: Solar production has
been on an exponential curve for 30
years, but you can now see the burgeoning impact.
Last year, more solar energy was installed
worldwide than fossil. Energy companies are
desperately trying to limit access to the grid to prevent competition from home
solar installations, but that can't
last. Technology will take care of that
strategy.
With cheap electricity comes cheap and
abundant water. Desalination of salt
water now only needs 2kWh per cubic meter (@ 0.25 cents). We don't have scarce water in
most places, we only have scarce drinking water. Imagine what will be possible if anyone can
have as much clean water as he wants, for nearly no cost.
Health: The Tricorder X price
will be announced this year.
There are companies who will build a
medical device (called the "Tricorder" from Star Trek) that
works with your phone, which takes your
retina scan, your blood sample and you
breath into it.
It then analyses 54 bio-markers that will
identify nearly any disease.. It will be
cheap, so in a few years everyone on this planet will have access to world
class medical analysis, nearly for free Goodbye, medical establishment.
3D printing: The price of the cheapest 3D
printer came down from $18,000 to $400
within 10 years. In the same time, it became 100 times faster. All major shoe
companies have already started 3D printing
shoes.
Some spare airplane parts are already 3D
printed in remote airports. The space
station now has a printer that eliminates the need for the large amount of
spare parts they used to have in the past.
At the end of this year, new smart phones
will have 3D scanning possibilities. You
can then 3D scan your feet and print your perfect shoe at home.
In China, they already 3D printed and built
a complete 6-story office building. By 2027,
10% of everything that's being produced
will be 3D printed.
Business opportunities: If you think of a
niche you want to go in, first ask
yourself: "In the future, do I think we will have that?" and if the
answer is yes, how can you make that happen sooner?
If it doesn't work with your phone, forget
the idea. And any idea designed for
success in the 20th century is doomed to failure in the 21st century.
Work: 70-80% of jobs will disappear in the
next 20 years. There will be a lot of new jobs, but it is not clear if there
will be enough new jobs in such a short time.
This will require a rethink on wealth distribution.
Agriculture: There will be a $100 agricultural
robot in the future. Farmers in 3rd
world countries can then become managers of their field instead of working all
day on their fields.
Aeroponics will need much less water. The first Petri dish produced veal, is now
available and will be cheaper than cow produced veal in 2018. Right now, 30% of
all agricultural surfaces is used for
cows. Imagine if we don't need that
space anymore.
There are several start-ups who will bring
insect protein to the market shortly. It
contains more protein than meat. It will be labelled as "alternative
protein source" (because most people still reject the idea of eating insects).
There is an app called "moodies"
which can already tell in which mood you’re in.
By 2020 there will be apps that
can tell by your facial expressions, if you are lying. Imagine a political debate where it's being
displayed when they’re telling the truth
and when they’re not.
Nessun commento:
Posta un commento